Can a deal to release 50 Israeli women and children in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners and a four-day cessation of the war result in anything more lasting?
That would seem unlikely.
Just before Israel’s cabinet gave its approval, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a lasting cease-fire wasn’t part of the plan. “We are at war and we will continue it until we achieve all the objectives,” he said.
But there could be some wiggle room. Israel’s cabinet has opened the door to pause the bombardment of Gaza for up to 10 days should Hamas release more of the remaining hostages it captured during its Oct. 7 attack that left 1,200 dead.
Should that happen, some trust could be re-established.
Diplomatic sources confirm that those who worked tirelessly on the hostage deal will now use the break to spur talks on something more lasting. Officials in Qatar, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank have all expressed such hopes too.
But first, the initial hostage deal will have to be respected. Pauses in past conflicts in Gaza have been flouted. And Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by the US and the European Union, is committed to the destruction of Israel.
And many feel peace would probably depend on a shift in thinking in Washington, where the Joe Biden administration so far has supported Israel’s offensive, albeit while urging the military to reduce the number of civilian deaths.
Around 14,000 people have lost their lives in Gaza, according to the territory’s Hamas-run government.
And with Israeli air strikes continuing even while the cabinet was meeting on the hostage accord, Hafsa Halawa, a Dubai-based non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, said “it can still get much, much worse.” —Simon Marks